IN-Gov: New Poll Has Daniels Up Big

Indiana Legislative Insight (5/27-6/1, registered voters):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 35

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s a surprisingly large lead for Daniels, and it doesn’t quite jibe with the latest polls from SurveyUSA and Research 2000 taken before the primary that showed this race in tossup territory. However, the last two Howey-Gauge polls both pegged this race with similar margins for Daniels. I’d like to see some more post-primary polls before I buy stock in this one.

Here’s a bonus finding from the same poll: McCain leads Obama by 47-38 in the state.

9 thoughts on “IN-Gov: New Poll Has Daniels Up Big”

  2. in the SUSA poll it was 39D34R28I. This one is 36D35R24I.

    That certainly hurts Thompson. Perhaps this reflects a quieting in Indiana over the whole highway toll incident.

    I’ll wait for the next SUSA poll before I’ll make any judgment.  

  4. This race has fallen under the radar, but the implications could be large if Indiana loses a seat in the next census.  Should Daniels wins again, and with the State Senate firmly in GOP hands, we could be in trouble in 2012.  We currently control the State House, but by a very slim margin.  

    With Daniels in control, the state GOP could find a way to merge either parts of the 8th and 9th, or perhaps even the 1st and 2d.  All of the GOP districts are strongly red, and the closeness of IN-03 in 2006 notwithstanding, unlikely to elect a Democrat any time soon.  Therefore, the Dems in the delegation would be in danger,

    The state GOP certainly still remembers how we tried to oust Steve Buyer, and put him into a race with Rep Brian Kerns.  I am guessing trying to merge parts of the 8th and 9th would be easier, and the smarter route.  Getting rid of Brad Ellsworth would be wise, as he is a rising star, and would be a big front-runner to take Dick Lugar’s seat when he finally retires in 2012.  It would be a shame to see either Ellsworth or Baron Hill lose their seat.  This race is important.  

  5. two seats in congress in 2012 do to Gerrymandering. I could see Ellsworth jumping it and probably winning a Senate race, leaving Hill with a more favorable district based around Bloomington and Evansville. They’d still probably try to get rid of Donelley, making his district much more Republican.

    I’m hoping this poll is incorrect. We need Thompson to win. I’m figuring it is incorrect, as most candidate get a post primary bounce. The only thing I can think of is a bunch of Schellinger supporters around Marion County playing sore loser and backing Daniels. If so, she needs to consolidate the Democratic base.  

  7. I don’t think JLT is necessarily down 16 points, but I do think Daniels does have a clear lead at this point.  As much as we don’t want to admit it, in the eyes of many people here he’s been a good governor and made significant reforms to many aspects of the state.  Now don’t flip out, everyone — I’m not suggesting anyone vote for him, for a whole bunch of reasons!  But this election IS NOT going to be primarily about daylight saving time and toll roads as much as it will be about property taxes and job creation.

    Thompson is going to get absolutely crushed in the Indianapolis suburbs and the rest of central Indiana.  Along with the traditional Democratic strongholds (Indy proper, the Region, Bloomington), she can hope to do better than most Democrats in the Fort Wayne area (GOP area, but she’s from there).  The more I think about it, southern Indiana is going to be the swing region in this election.  It is a totally different animal than the rest of the state: more Kentucky than Illinois or Michigan, locally oriented, perhaps both more conservative and more open to voting for good Democrats at the same time than some other parts of the state — and really hurting economically.  Thompson picking a southern Indiana running mate could help, but either way she’s going to have to spend a lot of time eating plates of biscuts and gravy for breakfast here if she wants to be our next governor.

    There is a case to be made against Mitch Daniels, but Jill Long Thompson needs to get busy making it.  That’s been one of the raps against her in this campaign that she essentially did very little for months and months in the primary campaign.  Its past time to get going!

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